Archive for November 28th, 2009

All three lie in unmarked graves in a cemetery beside a field of cotton. Abdul Razzaq described his losses calmly, but his slight frame is withered by grief. His one surviving child was seriously injured in the blast. He keeps asking for his brothers and sisters.
My heart is not at peace,” Abdul Razzaq said. “I can’t sit in one place. I just roam around the village, from one place to another.”
The explosion in his remote village was one of a series of brutal wake-up calls about the growing militant threat in south Punjab.
Interviews we have conducted with senior police officers, independent analysts and militants in custody suggest that southern Punjab could be Pakistan’s next battleground.
Internal police documents we have seen paint a picture of a province at risk.
One report states that “poverty stricken, extremely feudalistic and illiterate south Punjab could possibly provide shelter to Taliban and other jihadi outfits. It has the potential to become a nursery or a major centre for sectarian recruitment.”
Some experts here argue that it has already reached that point. One describes it as “a factory for suicide bombers”.
Police say that al-Qaeda has access to a labour pool via the banned sectarian group Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), among others.

Analysts have long suspected Pakistan’s Bajaur tribal region to be the hiding place of Osama Bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and other top al-Qaeda leaders. As such, it is where suspected US drones launched their earliest missile strikes. One drone strike in January 2006 was said to have narrowly missed Ayman al-Zawahiri, although it killed nearly 18 others. Another strike nine months later killed 80 people at a religious seminary which US and Pakistani officials said was training militants.
The dominant militant group in Bajaur, and those in the neighbouring Mohmand tribal region, became members of the Baitullah Mehsud-led Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which was formed soon afterwards. Militants in both areas have since fought Pakistani forces inside their respective tribal zones, and have also carried out attacks in the cities of Peshawar, Charsadda and Mardan. They also conducted the first attacks against security forces in the Malakand region, where a fully fledged insurgency is currently continuing in and around the Swat valley.
Maulvi Faqir Mohammad is the chief commander of the Taliban in Bajaur. He is said to lead a force of nearly 10,000 armed militants. The “hard core” of his force is a good deal smaller. A year-long military operation against the militants in Bajaur ended early this year, followed by a peace agreement under which the dominant tribe in Bajaur, the Mamunds, agreed to surrender the entire TTP leadership to the government. But that has not happened. The Taliban are back in control in most areas outside the regional capital, Khaar, and Maulvi Faqir Mohammad continues to use his sermons, broadcast from an FM radio station, to whip up support for the Taliban.
In Mohmand, about 5,000 militants led by Omar Khalid have been resisting attempts by the security forces to clear them from southern and south-eastern parts of the district in order to reduce pressure on Peshawar and Charsadda. How many militants would stay to face a sustained offensive is unclear.

Fourth, the army has had the experience of operating in Waziristan since 2002, whereas it was a complete stranger to the Malakand region.
Fifth, the winters in the Mehsud area of South Waziristan are not as harsh as in some other areas and have not prevented the army from conducting operations there in the recent past.
Given these factors, security analysts believe there may be two main reasons why the army has been putting off action against this destructive ground-zero of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan.
Any action against the Baitullah Mehsud group in South Waziristan could draw in to the conflict militant groups based in the Wazir tribal areas of South and North Waziristan.
These groups are part of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Haqqani network, and have peace agreements with the army.
They have so far concentrated exclusively on fighting inside Afghanistan, and many analysts consider their activities central to the army’s perceived security interests in South Asia.
Any hostilities with them may harm these interests, analysts say.
Another reason may well have been the US government’s so-called Kerry-Lugar bill which promises $1.5bn (£0.95bn) in annual aid to Pakistan for the next five years.
The bill offers an unprecedented chance to the country’s civilian government to expand its clout over the state institutions at the cost of the military, which has until now monopolised political decision-making.
Last week, the army publicly denounced the bill at a time when the government was defending it, thereby sparking a rift in the political establishment.
But the dizzying pace at which the militants have struck at targets across the country during the last couple of weeks has increased public pressure on the army to deal with its erstwhile proteges.

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